The Ultimate Macro Phase Change

Real VisionMay 29, 2020
Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman Capital Management, sits down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss the new risk-reward paradigm he sees on the horizon. Clark explains why he believes that the past decade – characterized by low growth, falling commodity prices, and a strong dollar – is coming to an end. Clark and Pal look at ratios such as gold/oil and growth/value to interest rates, and Clark suggests that a prolonged wave of commodity price appreciation could become the new normal once aggregate demand returns to pre-crisis levels. Clark also discusses China and its Belt and Road Initiative in great detail. Clark and Pal consider the potential returns of assets within emerging markets, as well as commodities such as gold and oil. Filmed on May 26, 2020.
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Other Real Vision Videos

Real VisionJuly 03, 2020
The Highest Quality Macro Trades and the Impending End of U.S. Outperformance
Ben Melkman, CEO and founder of Light Sky Macro, returns to discuss the biggest macro themes and trades on the horizon with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. In this wide-ranging discussion, they examine everything from COVID and the effects of its handling by the U.S. and Europe to the probability of fiscal union in Europe as well as the potential outcomes of the U.S. election. Melkman and Pal agree that the combination of unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy has to have unwanted consequences somewhere and that this likely will play out in FX markets. Conversely, Melkman pushes back on Raoul’s dollar shortage thesis, arguing that the dollar is in store for a rough 2020 and makes the case for the end of U.S. equity outperformance sooner rather than later. Filmed on Wednesday July 1, 2020.
Real VisionJuly 02, 2020
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Real VisionJuly 02, 2020
Market Irrationality, Monetary Confidence, and Systemic Change
Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts LLC, joins Dee Smith of the Strategic Insights Group to break down Atwater’s perspective on systemic fragmentation and how that will impact financial markets. Atwater breaks down the end of cycle phenomena of overconfidence, fraud, and an eventual recovery. He and Smith also discuss where market sentiment is headed from here. Atwater and Smith explain how markets act like the world’s most expansive social network and the role of money, markets, and faith in making that network work. Finally, Atwater breaks down the relationship between inflation and narrative and why markets have not seen the level of inflation that many have predicted. Filmed June 30, 2020.

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