Real Vision

Real VisionJanuary 08, 2021
The PANDA Network: Challenging the Mainstream Lockdown Narrative
In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. Filmed on January 4, 2020. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org.

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Real VisionJanuary 15, 2021
Looking Forward at Interest Rates, the U.S. Dollar, Volatility, and the B117 Variant
Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figure, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze of GameStop Corp ($GME).
Real VisionJanuary 15, 2021
Carly Fiorina: Big tech Has Unprecedented Economic Power
Carly Fiorina, founder and chairman of Carly Fiorina Enterprises and 2016 Republican Presidential candidate, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the value and challenges of regulating big tech and the enormous economic power it has amassed across the globe. Hailing from an extensive career in tech and finance as former CEO of HP, she discusses the opportunities that business can bring to the political table and the challenges she faced as a woman in male-dominated industries, and the value of regulating big tech. She also shares her views on current events from the storming of the Capitol to the political climate to the effects of the pandemic on public policy. Filmed on January 11, 2021. Key Learnings: Fiorina argues that focusing on results rather than partisan issues encourages competition and accountability to restore political systems and revitalize the economy.
Real VisionJanuary 14, 2021
Real Vision's New President on the Dollar, Bonds, Bitcoin, and Tether
Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising.
Real VisionJanuary 14, 2021
Iran: Investing in One of the Best-Performing Stock Markets
Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal welcomes back Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund devoted to Iranian equities, to discuss how he's identified a diversified economy in Iran despite decades of sanctions and geopolitical risks. His interest in Iran was sparked by the nuclear deal brokered by President Obama in 2015 where he found a stock market that had been operating for more than two decades and included nearly 600 companies with $200 million in daily liquidity. His fund gives Western investors access to fast-growing businesses with low valuations in an array of industries—from utilities and automotive to commodities and agriculture. He shares his perspective on managing volatility as well as how the U.S.-Iran relations are expected to change under a new Democratic administration, and he weighs in on trade with neighboring countries in the Middle Eastern region. Filmed on January 12, 2021. Key Learnings: Despite an overall economy that has been rapidly contracting because of U.S. sanctions and weak oil prices, Iran has one of the best-performing stock markets. Iran's stock market is dominated by retail investors with foreign ones making up less than half a percent of the market cap. Wojtal looks for companies that have pure export exposure, and he has been able to find companies with exports in the region that are usually not affected by sanctions.

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