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Real VisionAugust 15, 2022
Here's How the Hong Kong Dollar Breaks Its U.S. Dollar Peg
Making the call for the failure of the Hong Kong dollar’s (HKD) peg to the U.S. dollar (USD) has itself been a failure – so far. Maybe it was just made too early. Francis Hunt has been observing various signals of stress, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has repeatedly stepped in to defend the peg since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates earlier this year. This time, according to Hunt, it is different. In conversation with Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson, he offers an emergency update on the probability the Hong Kong dollar breaks its U.S. dollar peg, an event Hunt considers underpriced by markets. Assessing it from fundamental as well as technical perspectives, “The Market Sniper” underscores the timeliness of the trade setup. Continuing capital flight, declining tax revenue, ever-tightening liquidity, and China’s brewing internal issues all undermine a relationship that dates to 1983. Recorded on August 9, 2022.
Real VisionAugust 12, 2022
The Market Doesn't Have to Crash
The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs?
Real VisionAugust 12, 2022
"How to Actually Trade the Yen"
Weston Nakamura is accepting a challenge from the Real Vision Community in the aftermath of his previous piece, “The Landing of the Rising Yen?” RV Members want to understand the different strategies for expressing Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura’s thesis about the Japanese yen. Getting back to his trading roots and looking at various instruments and structures, some of which are highly unconventional and don’t even touch foreign exchange markets, Weston explains exactly how to get directional exposure to the yen in the context of personal risk tolerance, time horizons, and investing objectives. This is not specific trading advice but is part of an effort to answer your questions and drive this conversation forward.
Real VisionAugust 11, 2022
Is a Soft Landing a Pipe Dream?
U.S. stocks surged again this morning on news the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in July, the first monthly decline since April 2020. At the same time, producer prices were up 9.8% year over year. And multiple Federal Reserve officials said tightening would continue until inflationary pressures completely ease. “Stocks are going up,” notes Harry Melandri, an advisor at Mi2 Partners and the host of Real Vision’s The Next Big Trade podcast, “and that doesn’t seem consistent with Fed statements.” That we need inflation to have peaked and to no longer be a problem does not mean, of course, that it’s happened. To that end, we hear from emerging markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius about reasons to start nibbling amid what’s still a bear market as well as the possibility that there’s another shoe to drop because the Fed remains hawkish. Harry joins Maggie Lake, the host of Real Vision’s My Life in 4 Trades podcast, to talk about all that and much more, including Harry’s Cheesecake Factory anecdote. Watch the full interview featuring Mark Mobius and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3zHPXXi.

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