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Real VisionFebruary 26, 2021
Will Rising Interest Rates Change The Game?
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley for a deep-dive on how rapidly rising interest rates are transforming the financial landscape before our very eyes. Ed and Ash analyze the latest economic data on rising personal income and share their views on the proposed $15 minimum wage that failed to make it into the stimulus bill. Jack and Ash review price action in stocks and commodities and explain how interest rates are like a financial gravity of sorts. Jack and Ed talk about how rising rates are creating tremendous change within the fixed income market. Lastly, the three discuss ARK Innovation ETF and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s falling below net asset value.
Real VisionFebruary 26, 2021
Grantham's GMO: Twilight of Growth Stocks
In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar’s investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio. Filmed on February 23, 2021. Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role.
Real VisionFebruary 25, 2021
Stocks Follow Bonds Into the Slaughterhouse
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to the Daily Briefing to make sense of the massive rout in long-dated Treasury bonds that is perturbing every aspect of the market—from high-flying growth names like Tesla to gold to Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS). Bianco connects bond market indigestion to that lingering question around inflation, and hazards that industrials and financials will fare the best on a relative basis. Bianco and Harrison look at the Fed Fund futures, which indicate that the market is pricing in a rate hike. They also discuss the outflows out of the series of ARK innovation ETFs.
Real VisionFebruary 25, 2021
Uranium: "The Most Asymmetric Trade I've Seen In My Life"
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio. Filmed on February 22, 2021. Key learnings: Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime. The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla.

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