Real Vision

Real VisionAugust 02, 2022
Pelosi Goes To Taiwan
U.S. equity indexes teetered between positive and negative territory on Tuesday, as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan provoked rapid responses from China, including the announcement of military drills to take place Aug. 4-7 that will basically encircle the island. Taylor Fravel, the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the MIT Security Studies Program, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about what comes next in an increasingly fraught geopolitical situation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the central bank is “nowhere near” being almost done fighting inflation, and bond yields were higher across the U.S. curve, with the 10-year making its biggest move since mid-June. Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Andreas to talk about recent price action and what happens to commodities markets if tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan boil over.
Real VisionAugust 02, 2022
India's Jamie Dimon: We're on the Verge of an Explosive Future
Home to 1.4 billion people, India has long held great potential simply because of its human infrastructure. Now, sustained and successful efforts to open the economy are beginning to bear fruit. Amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, the Subcontinent is one place on Earth where the future seems bright. Enam Securities co-founder Vallabh Bhanshali talks to Real Vision’s Maggie Lake about what makes India go and where it’s headed. In a fascinating exchange, Bhanshali explains how India’s vaccine program set a template for digitizing its entire economy. India, the investment banker argues, is ready for a technologically sophisticated future. Recorded on June 3, 2022.
Real VisionAugust 01, 2022
What Does the Data Say?
Equity indexes slipped into negative territory Monday afternoon and the U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve inverted even further, as investors price in easing inflation and slowing growth. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slipped to a 25-month low, and home prices registered the fastest cool-down in history during July. Meanwhile, whether Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taiwan on Tuesday is more fuel for the conflagration that is the postwar geopolitical order. With the world’s most important central bank now “data dependent,” Real Vision macro analyst Roger Hirst joins Maggie Lake to contextualize recent economic reports and explain how to use them to make better investment and trading decisions – one of the key elements of the brand-new Real Investing Course from Real Vision. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about recent price action on the critical USD/JPY front. Watch Weston's latest video here: https://rvtv.io/3zPUZCv.
Real VisionJuly 29, 2022
The Two-Year Recession
A Real Vision favorite returns, as Raoul welcomes back David Rosenberg to follow up on their conversation from late 2021. Raoul and Dave talk about where we are now, including an update on Dave’s recession call, what he thinks about inflation, how the Federal Reserve will react. Raoul also gets Dave’s view on what markets will do and whether he agrees with Raoul’s “buy bonds, wear diamonds” call. As ever, a conversation between Raoul and Dave is a must-watch, even if their views don’t match your own. These are difficult times, and we need to account for all possible scenarios. Recorded on July 28th, 2022.
Real VisionJuly 29, 2022
Why the "Inflation Is Over" Rally Will Fall
We’re witnessing the greatest stock market rally in the aftermath of a Federal Reserve rate hike since the 1970s, as investors seem to be celebrating inflation’s end. That’s despite the fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, surged to 6.8% in June, the highest reading since June 1982. Jerome Powell said this week’s 75-basis-point move gets the fed funds target range back to “neutral.” According to Jim Bianco, “That only works if you still believe in transitory and inflation is going back to 2%.” Bianco, the founder of Bianco Research, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about why inflation is not “over,” what the Fed will do with “incoming data,” and when the recession will become “official.” We also hear from David Rosenberg about when and why the market will bottom.
Real VisionJuly 29, 2022
India: How To Play the Shift From West to East
Calling it a “global” financial system ignores the fact that what it describes does not reflect the reality of what’s happening beyond the West, according to Debashish Bose, Managing Director of Oaks Asset Management. And it’s too simple to categorize countries like India as being “with” or “against” the United States and/or the U.S. dollar. Such framing, says Bose, ignores the reality of long-term trade relationships that include countries like Russia and China. But cracks are forming in the postwar order; as Bose sees it, the future will be defined by regional trade, energy blocs, and military alliances of convenience. India, transitioning from a low-income to a middle-income economy with a major focus on its digital ecosystem, is well-positioned to benefit from a global realignment. And Bose is positioning to capitalize on it. As Bose explains, “Assume anything that can be disrupted, will be disrupted.” Recorded on May 27, 2022.

Pages

Featured Videos

Real VisionAugust 15, 2022
Is All the Bad News Priced In?
The People’s Bank of China got the week started with surprise rate cuts on domestic growth concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey on general business conditions for August registered its second-biggest slide since 2001, and the National Association of Home Buyers/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index declined for the eighth straight month. But all three major U.S. equity indexes were higher heading into the close, as Treasury yields continued to drift lower. Perhaps investors anticipate a Federal Reserve pivot. Perhaps they’re pricing in a selloff in crude oil. Has the larger trend shifted? “We have NEVER seen a time in history like this,” tweeted Michael Gayed in July, “where a significant drawdown in Treasuries matched a significant drawdown in stocks (which may not be over).” Gayed, the publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about stocks, bonds, and the rising risk of demand destruction because of Fed rate hikes just as supply chains come back on line.
Real VisionAugust 15, 2022
Here's How the Hong Kong Dollar Breaks Its U.S. Dollar Peg
Making the call for the failure of the Hong Kong dollar’s (HKD) peg to the U.S. dollar (USD) has itself been a failure – so far. Maybe it was just made too early. Francis Hunt has been observing various signals of stress, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has repeatedly stepped in to defend the peg since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates earlier this year. This time, according to Hunt, it is different. In conversation with Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson, he offers an emergency update on the probability the Hong Kong dollar breaks its U.S. dollar peg, an event Hunt considers underpriced by markets. Assessing it from fundamental as well as technical perspectives, “The Market Sniper” underscores the timeliness of the trade setup. Continuing capital flight, declining tax revenue, ever-tightening liquidity, and China’s brewing internal issues all undermine a relationship that dates to 1983. Recorded on August 9, 2022.
Real VisionAugust 12, 2022
The Market Doesn't Have to Crash
The University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for July ticked up to 55.1 from 51.5 in June, as a sub-measure of consumer expectations reached a three-month high. And U.S. stocks continue to surge on the hope inflation has peaked. News from overseas continues to reflect an unsettled, at best, macroeconomic environment, with the U.K. economy shrinking for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of 2020, water levels on the Rhone River falling to a critical mark due to historic drought, and credit growth in China slowing sharply on sluggish demand. Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about inflation, recent economic data, risk appetite amid what remains a fraught geo-macro moment, and why this might be the most hated equity market rally ever. Is it possible that stocks have already seen their lows and that this rally has real legs?
Real VisionAugust 12, 2022
"How to Actually Trade the Yen"
Weston Nakamura is accepting a challenge from the Real Vision Community in the aftermath of his previous piece, “The Landing of the Rising Yen?” RV Members want to understand the different strategies for expressing Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura’s thesis about the Japanese yen. Getting back to his trading roots and looking at various instruments and structures, some of which are highly unconventional and don’t even touch foreign exchange markets, Weston explains exactly how to get directional exposure to the yen in the context of personal risk tolerance, time horizons, and investing objectives. This is not specific trading advice but is part of an effort to answer your questions and drive this conversation forward.

INK Ultra Money Free

See more free videos