Real Vision

Real VisionMarch 11, 2020
Emerging Markets: The Dollar Debt Debacle
Rashique Rahman is a global macro specialist on the front lines of emerging market investing. He speaks to Real Vision’s Ed Harrison about the structural obstacles that emerging market economies face. Rahman discusses the compounding trade deficits that could trigger a liquidity crisis in countries like Argentina and Turkey, the enormous commodity risks that lumbering giants like Russia must overcome, and how stagnating income-per-capita is pushing countries like South Africa and Chile to the brink of societal collapse. Overhanging all of that is the U.S. dollar, which has appreciated greatly over the past half-decade and is a chain around the neck of all countries with liabilities denominated in dollars. Rahman argues that at the end of the day, emerging markets are not just a sector to which investors can allocate capital, but rather a world in and of itself. He reveals why investing in winners and avoiding losers will provide returns that taking secular bets will not. Filmed on January 28, 2020.
Real VisionMarch 10, 2020
Market Makers & Coronavirus: The Mechanics of a Market Sell-Off
How do sell-offs actually happen? With the S&P 500 selling off hard and fast, Hari Krishnan, fund manager at Doherty Advisors, breaks down the mechanics of market meltdowns. Krishnan explains the role of different institutional players like market-makers and drills down on the individual components that make up market meltdowns. Filmed on March 3, 2020 in New York.
Real VisionMarch 09, 2020
Coronavirus, Crude, Energy Equities, and IMO 2020
Crude oil and the energy sector have both been extremely unloved in the past few years, perhaps for good reason. Still, many said the negative sentiment had gone too far and that both were strong contenders to rebound in 2020. But then came coronavirus, and now once again, energy equities and oil are out of favor. To update us on these markets that are squarely in the crosshairs of coronavirus, we have Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research. In this interview, Pies explains his no-nonsense approach to examining crude oil and the energy sector in general – providing outlooks for both. He also updates viewers on an idea you may have heard about last year from Real Vision contributors like Harris Kupperman – tankers and IMO 2020. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.
Real VisionMarch 06, 2020
Praying for a Miracle: Coronavirus' Black Swan Risk
Will the coronavirus cause the everything bubble to pop, trigger a global economic depression, and be the impetus for major systemic changes? Raoul Pal of Global Macro Investor argues that the current coronavirus outbreak could be the “biggest economic event of our lifetimes.” He reveals his analysis of the real risks presented by the coronavirus outbreak and the ensuing response for people, markets, and institutions. He compares the COVID-19 outbreak to the Spanish Flu from a century ago – pointing out the important similarities and differences. He connects his doom loop thesis to the Black Swan risk that coronavirus represents to the indexification of markets, the coming retirement crisis, and the everything bubble. Finally, he shares his thoughts on the impact a global event could have on gold and cryptocurrencies and shares his hope for a better future born of the COVID-19 chaos. Filmed on March 4, 2020 in New York.
Real VisionMarch 05, 2020
The Central Banks' Losing Battle with Deflation
Even before Ben Bernanke made the official declaration that the Fed is in fact targeting inflation, economists and governments around the world have counted on it to manage ever increasing debts. Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” argues that they are fighting an inevitably losing battle. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Booth makes the case that secular deflationary trends will be the ultimate undoing of monetary policy and technology is driving this deflation at an increasing rate. He touches on several of the most culpable technologies, the potential issues society will face as a result, and the asset classes and businesses in the best position to take advantage of this trend. Filmed on February 25, 2020 in New York.
Real VisionMarch 04, 2020
Market Fundamentals vs. Coronavirus
Will coronavirus trigger a bear market – or are we simply experiencing an ordinary market correction? Nick Reece, senior financial analyst & portfolio manager at Merk Investments, joins Real Vision to unpack the underlying state of the global economy and risk asset prices in order to explore this timely and important topic. Using his analytic framework, Reece covers global manufacturing output, market volatility, earnings multiples, labor cycle analysis, historical examples, and the relative rates of return across multiple asset classes. Filmed on February 26, 2020 in New York.

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Real VisionMarch 28, 2020
How Coronavirus Exposed the "Shaky Foundation"
What happens when an upheaval so massive forces financial markets, governments, and society to rethink how our systems work? Michael Krieger, author of the Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Real Vision to explain what coronavirus and the response to the outbreak has revealed about the condition of American systems – from financial markets to the health care system. Tracing the story of financial markets and societal trends over the past two decades, Krieger outlines how our systems have been pushed to the brink – focusing on emergency policy responses and the everything bubble. He also provides viewers with potential solutions to the systemic decay that has been brought to the forefront by the coronavirus outbreak.
Real VisionMarch 27, 2020
Coronavirus and the Macro Consequences
Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, joins Mike Green of Logica Capital to discuss the broader economic and financial conditions markets are experiencing amid coronavirus’ chaos. The pair discuss the current macro environment, volatility, government policy responses - both monetary and fiscal. Through their breakdown of a broad array of topics, Peters and Green tackle topics ranging from global supply chains to the merger of human and machine intelligence.
Real VisionMarch 27, 2020
The Next Waves of the Financial Crisis
In the past few years, nobody could have predicted that a pandemic would be the catalyst sending shock waves through the entire global economy, plunging us into a bear market in record time. Some voices though have been screaming from the rooftops about the macroeconomic and structural weaknesses that left markets vulnerable to any potential disruption. One of those voices was Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank. In this interview with Roger Hirst, Jakobsen examines the weaknesses of a buyback-driven and debt-ridden market that have been quickly exposed by coronavirus. They also look into the future at how the crisis will affect real assets, the dollar, the banking system, and why, when all is said and done, we could see both inflation and deflation.
Real VisionMarch 26, 2020
Gold, Germs, and Self-Preservation
Kiril Sokoloff, chairman and founder of 13D Global Strategy and Research, joins Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and its long-term consequences on monetary policy, investing, and geopolitics. Pal and Sokoloff analyze how a protracted quarantine might slow economic activity to such a degree that central banks become more active than they ever have before, either by monetizing debt or by purchasing risk assets outright. The pair also explore how the crisis might affect the 2020 election, the practice of stock buybacks, and specific assets like oil, gold, and the Japanese Yen. Released March 26, 2020.

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