Real Vision

Real VisionFebruary 11, 2021
Technical Breakouts in the S&P 500, Treasury Bonds, Retail Stocks, and Bitcoin
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies LLC, to make sense of recent price action in stocks, bonds, and crypto. Stockton spots key technical signals on the S&P 500 and the S&P Retail ETF ($XRT) and gauges levels of support and resistance in Bitcoin, where the price has shot well above its 50 day moving average, and the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield, which Stockton estimates is forming a breakout pattern.
Real VisionFebruary 11, 2021
Reflation Rally or Market Bubble? The Yield Curve Will Show the Way
Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to explore whether particular assets are in a "bubble," sharing her views on equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and cryptocurrencies. Alden argues that the drastic expansion of the monetary base will inevitably find its way into financial assets, if not the real economy. Reflation will boost cyclical value stocks, particularly energy and financials. If inflation triggers a sell-off on the long end of the yield curve, causing it to steepen, banks in particular will benefit. If the Federal Reserve enacts yield curve control, however, then this is environment is most favorable for precious metals. Filmed on February 8, 2021. Key learnings: Pockets of opportunity exist in cyclical value equities such as financials and energy. How lucrative these opportunities are will depend on the long-end of the yield curve. Alden is constructive on emerging markets and thinks that Asian technology equities are favorable. Alden contends that since the move to digital assets is a strong secular force, Bitcoin and Ethereum are most likely not in a bubble on a long-term time horizon. Her faith in altcoins is less certain as they are more speculative.
Real VisionFebruary 10, 2021
Waiting for Inflation, SPACmania, and Dislocations in the Cannabis Bull Market
Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley delve into what Fed Chair Powell’s remarks indicate about the future of monetary policy and the economy. Max catalogs the rally in cannabis equities and notes that the bulk of the euphoria seems to be located in Canadian pot stocks, which may not be as favorable as their U.S. counterparts. After noting the tremendous volatility in MicroStrategy Incorporated ($MSTR), Jack and Max interpret what today’s reading for the Consumer Price Index, which fell slightly below expectations, means for reflation trades such as banks and energy. They close by giving a sneak peek of upcoming interviews with Julian Brigden, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and Lyn Alden as part of the “Is Everything a Bubble?” series.
Real VisionFebruary 10, 2021
Russell Napier: Growing Wealth in an Inflation Avalanche
If central banks and governments unite to debase their money and depreciate their currency, will the long-awaited inflation finally arrive? And if it does, how can investors position themselves to not only protect their portfolio—but in fact grow their wealth—in this inflationary environment? Russell Napier, preeminent investment strategist, joins Stephen Clapham of Behind the Balance Sheet to answer these two critical questions. Napier makes his case for why inflation is indeed on the horizon, discussing everything from rent controls and yield curve capping to credit rationing and pricing power, and then he and Clapham explore the various investments that have a favorable risk/reward profile should Napier's thesis prove correct. Filmed on February 4, 2021. Key learnings: Napier sees favorable opportunities in companies that can secure easy debt financing, value stocks whose pricing power varies with inflation, and countries with low debt-to-GDP ratios such as Singapore.
Real VisionFebruary 09, 2021
The Triggers for a Bond Bubble Pop Are Now in Motion
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss the oil market rally, signals of incoming inflation and the central bank response to it, and the drop in junk bond yields. Boockvar observes how oil is the last of the major commodities to join the rally as demand starts to catch up and the supply is demonstrating greater discipline, bringing markets into a full commodity rally. Boockvar then zooms out and breaks down the inflationary signals he’s witnessing and expresses his concern about whether an increase in consumer services will contribute to or relieve inflationary pressure. With junk bond yields dropping, Boockvar also explains how this may be due to more investors being pushed out onto the risk spectrum as investment-grade bonds are being perceived to have a Fed backstop. He points out the ever-growing bubble in bond markets and speculates that now is the first time in years where the true triggers for that bubble popping are in motion. He shares what retail investors should be watching out for, how QE has batted away the worst effects of bear markets, what drives the capital flight into the U.S., why the ECB's and BOJ's policies have in reality been more restrictive, and whether the Fed will ultimately have to implement yield curve control.
Real VisionFebruary 09, 2021
Mark Cuban: What the Fed-Driven Bubble Means for the Financial Establishment
Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street. Filmed February 3, 2021. Key Learnings: Cuban follows the HODL ethos of cryptocurrency and shares what’s in his crypto portfolio: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, and more. When it comes to the public markets, he explains why Amazon and Netflix are among the big tech companies with the strongest AI capabilities and they’ve remained two of his biggest holdings for years.

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Real VisionFebruary 25, 2021
Uranium: "The Most Asymmetric Trade I've Seen In My Life"
Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio. Filmed on February 22, 2021. Key learnings: Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime. The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla.
Real VisionFebruary 24, 2021
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
Has speculative mania reached a fever pitch? Will rising Treasury yields drag high-flying growth stocks back to the ground? Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Jared Dillian, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to the Daily Briefing to explore these questions and explain how he is navigating these frothy, choppy markets. Dillian shares his thoughts on everything from his bullishness on commercial real estate and energy stocks to his concerns about liquidity mismatches in Cathie Wood’s ARK ETFs. Dillian explains to Farley why he is long puts on "growthy" tech names like Tesla and Facebook and notes why he remains very constructive on gold and precious metals.
Real VisionFebruary 24, 2021
An Unknown Market Wizard on "The Difference Between A Gambler and A Genius"
Moritz Seibert, CEO of Munich Re Investment Partners and co-founder at Twoquants.com, welcomes to Real Vision Jason Shapiro, principal of JS Trading and one of the traders profiled in Jack Schwager's "Unknown Market Wizards." Shapiro traces his journey from being a commercial banker at HSBC to a mover and shaker in the equity futures market. Shapiro shares with Seibert lessons he learned about risk management, position sizing, and portfolio construction. They also discuss how commodity trend-following strategies can produce a series of uncorrelated—and sometimes negatively correlated—convex returns. Shapiro explains his trepidations about speculative fervor but why nonetheless he is constructive on the equity market (at least for the time being). Filmed on February 22, 2021. Key learnings: Since the March lows, almost every risk asset has yielded serious returns: copper, equities, SPACs—the list goes on. Seeing great evidence of speculative fervor, Shapiro discusses how the current moment reminds him of 1999. Yet, his insights on the net speculative positioning of equity futures incline him to remain bullish on U.S. equities.
Real VisionFebruary 23, 2021
NASDAQ Goes Haywire as Powell Doubles Down
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning’s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets.

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