Real Vision

Real VisionOctober 07, 2020
The Inflation Fairy Tale
Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as "money"? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields are, in fact, deflationary -- contrary to conventional wisdom. They pull no punches as they describe the "zero lower bound trap" that the Federal Reserve now faces, drawing upon their research into Japan. Lastly, Snider and van Metre analyze the March spike in Treasury prices and explore whether the funding pressures are over or if March was just a preview of what is to come. Filmed on October 5, 2020.
Real VisionOctober 06, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 6, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest wild market swings. Despite a large selling episode on Friday with the announcement of President Trump being diagnosed with COVID-19, Tony discusses how the rally still has momentum as the macro indicators are still driving markets upward. Ash then asks how Tony is currently hedging the news of the president's health, and they talk about how FAANG is now getting pummeled even though the rally is still holding. They review historical examples of key anti-trust cases and share their thoughts on why breaking up big tech may catch retail investors flat-footed. They wrap up their conversation with Tony sharing some trading lessons he's learned from his experience and what he's looking out for next. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains why stocks took a dive Tuesday afternoon after President Trump said he ordered an end to stimulus negotiations until after the November election.
Real VisionOctober 06, 2020
Optimism for a Digital Future Amid Harsh Economic Realities
Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020.
Real VisionOctober 05, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 5, 2020
Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison break down another day of risk-on sentiment as the market evaluates the state of President Trump’s health and the chances of another round of fiscal stimulus. Ed explores whether the term "depression" is appropriate, through the lens of his interview today with David Rosenberg. Ed and Ash then look at how duration risk and political gridlock might impact markets going forward. Lastly, Ash discusses his interview on Friday with Brian Estes, and looks forward to Live Q&A's with Lyn Alden, George Goncalves, and Ted Seides on 'The Exchange": https://exchange.realvision.com/. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at movie theater chain Cineworld's decision to shutter hundreds of theaters in the U.S. and U.K.
Real VisionOctober 05, 2020
David Rosenberg - In A Depression, Own What's Scarce
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research Associates, sits down with Real Vision’s Ed Harrison to discuss the case that the US and, more broadly, the world are in an economic depression. Rosenberg defines an economic depression as more than just a haircut on GDP, but a secular change in the attitudes in both the household and business sector. Together they address the risks to this thesis and dissect investment opportunities that arise in an environment that is scarce on both growth and yield. Filmed on September 30, 2020.
Real VisionOctober 02, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 2, 2020
Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, joins senior editor, Ash Bennington, to interpret the latest financial newsflow. Raoul explores the possibility of a top forming in U.S. equities through the lens of his "GMI crash pattern." He and Ash then analyze President Trump's diagnosis of COVID-19 and investigate its potential market impact. Raoul then talks about today's interview with hedge fund legend Dmitry Balyasny as well as next week's interview with bond kingpin Jeffrey Gundlach. Raoul and Ash briefly discuss the criminal charges brought against BitMEX, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. Lastly, Raoul shares his view on the enfeebled energy sector. In the intro, Real Vision's Jack Farley breaks down the price action following the COVID-19 outbreak in the White House.

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Real VisionOctober 20, 2020
The Madness of Crowds
Joe Walker is joined by John D. Turner and William Quinn, authors of "Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Crises", for a journey through the history of financial bubbles. Turner and Quinn explain their thinking on why financial manias occur using their theory on "the bubble triangle". They then share with Walker their in-depth analysis of particular manias such as the British Bicycle Mania and the Melbourne land bubble of the 1880s, using these and other examples to explore why bubbles have such profound economic, social, and political consequences. Filmed on October 9, 2020.
Real VisionOctober 19, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 19, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by managing editor, Ed Harrison, to interpret how the rising COVID-19 infections in Europe and the U.S. will impact markets. Ed conducts a deep dive on best practices for containing the virus while mitigating the economic damage, reviewing protocols in Norway, Sweden, Belgium, and New Zealand, and Ash looks at how China’s remarkable GDP growth could be related to its own containment strategy. Ed gives a sneak peek of his upcoming interview with legendary value investor Joel Greenblatt while Ash tells viewers about Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal’s surprise update on Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Lastly, Ed and Ash discuss signs of stress emanating from the New York commercial real estate market. In the intro, editor Jack Farley gives a snapshot of today’s price action and looks at NASDAQ futures contracts and Royal Caribbean Cruises’ recent convertible bond deal.
Real VisionOctober 19, 2020
Impact Investing: Making the Case for Charter Schools
Are charter schools a wise addition to your investment portfolio? Charter schools receive less public funding from local and state taxes and federal programs than their district school counterparts, so they seek private funding in efforts to be able to operate to their fullest capacity. Programs like the New Market Tax Credit (NMTC) and opportunity zones provide several incentives for holding investments in charter schools. This type of impact investing also pays back in good deed as investors in charter schools have the satisfaction of knowing that their investments better education for America’s children. Eva Moskowitz, founder and CEO of Success Academy, the largest and highest-performing free, public charter school network in New York City, opens up about how she is reimagining public education and how the network has had to adapt to remote learning amid the coronavirus pandemic. Filmed on October 15, 2020.
Real VisionOctober 16, 2020
Daily Briefing - October 16, 2020
Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, look forward to the relevant themes. Ed adds to David Rosenberg's recent comments that "organically, the economy is still in recession," and he and Ash reflect on the recent success of Sweden's pandemic shutdown response. They then put a week of bank earnings into context and analyze Warren Buffett selling the bulk of Berkshire Hathaway's holdings in Wells Fargo. In the intro, Ash speaks to Real Vision editor, Jack Farley, about "priming" in the markets for distressed debt. For reference, the video Ed discusses at the beginning can be found here: https://exchange.realvision.com/post/the-breakdown-what-all-financial-crises-have-in-common-5f89ad21d788a45104be209e.

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