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Real VisionMay 29, 2020
Daily Briefing - May 29, 2020
Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest developments in markets and macro in the era of coronavirus. Bennington and Harrison talk through the risks and potential upside to growth as European institutions debate bailouts in Europe, the possible ripple effect of President Trump’s call to revoke Hong Kong’s special trade status, and the plausibility of the renminbi becoming a global reserve currency. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses some of the latest economic data coming out of Canada.
Real VisionMay 29, 2020
The Ultimate Macro Phase Change
Russell Clark, CIO of Horseman Capital Management, sits down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to discuss the new risk-reward paradigm he sees on the horizon. Clark explains why he believes that the past decade – characterized by low growth, falling commodity prices, and a strong dollar – is coming to an end. Clark and Pal look at ratios such as gold/oil and growth/value to interest rates, and Clark suggests that a prolonged wave of commodity price appreciation could become the new normal once aggregate demand returns to pre-crisis levels. Clark also discusses China and its Belt and Road Initiative in great detail. Clark and Pal consider the potential returns of assets within emerging markets, as well as commodities such as gold and oil. Filmed on May 26, 2020.
Real VisionMay 28, 2020
Daily Briefing - May 28, 2020
Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. They talk through why US equities are still not suffering even though the real economic data demonstrates an increasingly bleaker picture. In light of that, Harrison and Hirst break down what lessons to draw from this investing environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Jack Farley looks at the continued strain on employment in the airline and tech industries.
Real VisionMay 28, 2020
The Great Reset
Stephen Clapham, founder of Behind the Balance Sheet, analyzes the unique challenges that companies worldwide are facing during the ongoing pandemic. Using forensic accounting, Clapham surveys the financial landscape to identify risks and opportunities. He argues that the crisis will force companies to prioritize shoring up their balance sheet, and that as a result, stock buybacks will be diminished and return on equity across various sectors will suffer. Clapham reviews how companies have been juicing their earnings with “adjusted” figures, and he argues that this pandemic is a catalyst for a “great reset” in which executives use the ongoing crisis as an excuse to accurately tally their companies’ earnings. Across a longer time horizon, Clapham expects inflationary pressures to mount as central banks continue to monetize debt and as major players in consolidated industries – such as hospitality, retail, and airlines – gain pricing power. Find out more about Stephen Clapham’s work at https://www.behindthebalancesheet.com/. Filmed on May 27, 2020.

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