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Real VisionJuly 14, 2020
Infinity Phase 3: The Post-COVID Paradigm
We often categorize the epochs of finance as “post-XYZ” crisis as the changes that take place in market psychology, monetary policy, and politics upend our previously held truths, and experienced market participants have to learn the new rules of the game. Christophe Ollari, founder of Ollari Consulting, believes we are entering into a new post-COVID era, marked by different forms of monetary policy (ie., yield curve control or direct support of equity markets), suppressed bond market volatility, and an equity market that must act accordingly. Ollari also touches on the much-discussed “disconnect” between equities and the economy and argues that the lagging Russell 2000 index is a perfect example of why markets are neither disconnected from the facts nor pricing in a V-shaped recovery. Filmed on July 9, 2020.
Real VisionJuly 13, 2020
Daily Briefing - July 13, 2020
Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Ed Harrison for a conversation about life and markets during coronavirus. Using Tesla as a jumping off point, they take an existentialist turn and explore what might bring people to speculate on a stock that, by all traditional metrics, is extremely overvalued. Ed proffers that people who take a gamble on Tesla and other retail favorites do so out of a sense of desperation in order to feel a sense of control, at a time when they feel powerless. Ash provides additional color on Ed’s theory by analyzing the impact of fiscal stimulus. Ed and Ash also they frame their thinking through today’s interview with Mark Blyth and Eric Lonergan. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the coming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S., and puts Tesla’s extreme price action in context.
Real VisionJuly 13, 2020
Angrynomics: Twilight of the Technocrats
The neoliberal model of free trade, open borders, and liberalized capital flows is under assault. Traditional economic models with rational agents and efficient markets don’t accord with reality, and people are starting to notice. Even recent advances in behavioral economics have failed to capture this disconnect. Mark Blyth, William R. Rhodes Professor of International Economics at Brown University, and Eric Lonergan, macro hedge fund manager at M&G Investments, explore and seek to resolve these conflicts in their new book, “Angrynomics.” Blyth and Lonergan examine how the outsourcing of economic management to grey-suited bureaucrats is fomenting a populist backlash that is redrawing political battle lines and molding the destiny of different asset classes in ways few fully grasp. They analyze the recent largesse of central banks as a sort of asymmetric put-option which rewards those who hold assets and punishes those who don’t. Blyth and Lonergan also explore potential solutions, which include dual interest rates, citizens’ wealth fund, and - yes - even helicopter money. Filmed on July 8, 2020.
Real VisionJuly 10, 2020
Daily Briefing - July 10, 2020
Is the idea of a V-shaped recovery dead? Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington explore that question in depth through the lens of the virulent reemergence of COVID-19 in the U.S. Raoul and Ash break down the alarming rise of cases coming out of many states and analyze the effect that this ominous second wave will have on markets. They also discuss Ash’s seminal interview today with Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director for Emerging Infectious Diseases at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Raoul is firm in belief that the human reaction function is what matters and that the virus’s effect on behavior is more significant than the virus itself. Raoul concludes that caution is prudent in these uncertain times and that the bond market is sending the clearest signal to investors. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines market news and coronavirus data.

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