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Real VisionMarch 05, 2021
Hidden Credit Risk, Jobs, and the Sudden "De-Frothing" Reversal
Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of today’s confounding price action. Growthy names plummeted alongside re-opening stocks like cruise lines and airlines, only for a sudden risk reversal to take place midday for all U.S. stock indexes to end the day deep in the green. Harrison and Bennington analyze today’s non-farm payroll numbers, which showed strength in the labor market concentrated in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sector. After the three explore how rising bond yields impact credit spreads and credit risk, Harrison investigates whether the rotation away from growth and into value and re-opening stocks will be a lasting trend. Farley provides data concerning SPACs, showing that the number of special purpose acquisition vehicles trading below $10 has steadily rose and why this could be another sign of the fragility of growth stocks.
Real VisionMarch 05, 2021
Will China's Largest Export Become Data?
Everyone agrees that data is the oil of the 21st century. But how to invest? Charles Li, recently retired chief executive of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) and the creator of the brilliant but very complex Hong Kong - Shanghai Stock Connect, and later the Hong Kong Shenzhen Stock Connect, explains the investment opportunities in this sector. Due to its population and less stringent views on privacy, China could well become the world's largest exporter of data—health data and financial data among others. Li also discusses why Hong Kong is crucial to China and why it will continue to prosper. Li also explains the magnitude and speed of the digitalization of the Chinese economy and the investment implications. Finally, he talks about his latest, incredibly innovative project in China—to provide financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, which have been starved of capital for years. His vehicle is what he calls revenue participation swaps, where the lender participates directly in the revenues of the business. Li was born in China, went to journalism school at the University of Alabama, and obtained a doctorate at Columbia Law School, later becoming a Trustee of Columbia University. Before HKEX, Li worked at Davis Polk & Wardwell and Brown & Wood, and he was Chairman of JP Morgan China. Filmed on February 20, 2021.
Real VisionMarch 04, 2021
Bonds Bite Back: How and When Will the Fed Respond?
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s volatile price action in bonds and high beta stocks. Boockvar explains that Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments earlier in the day triggered another sell-off in bonds as the market, emphasizing their fear of inflationary pressures to come in 2021, pushed back on the Fed for staying the course. Harrison and Boockvar explore a few different scenarios where the Fed could begin to move against the rise in rates including ramping up their bond buying programs and implementing yield curve control. They also examine the consequences of these actions and the possibility that the Fed will refrain from intervening until markets begin to break. Finally, Boockvar discusses equities, considering the potential winners and losers in this environment.
Real VisionMarch 04, 2021
Short Tech, Long Energy
Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, returns to Real Vision to share his latest views on economic growth, interest rates, commodities, and tech stocks. Citing everything from soaring retail sales figures to elevated levels of personal savings, Vallee projects that economic growth for U.S. GDP could be as high as 12%. In this reflationary environment, Vallee expects that bonds will continue to sell-off and that energy stocks will thrive while technology stocks will fare poorly. Filmed on March 1, 2021. Key learnings: Due to his lofty projections for economic growth (around 12%), Vallee estimates that U.S. nominal and real 10 year Treasury yields are likely to rise 100-150 basis points over the following 12-14 months. Accordingly, he expects tech multiples compression 20-30%, and energy equities, particularly those in Latin America, performing well. Because energy comprises a small percentage of the S&P 500 relative to tech, this period of reflationary growth could actually result in negative returns for the broad index.

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