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Real VisionDecember 04, 2020
Eurodollar Nirvana: Hugh Hendry and Lyn Alden in Dialogue
Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Filmed on December 1, 2020. Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels implied by its persistent trade deficit. But while Alden thinks the Eurodollar system will expand beyond the control of the U.S., Hendry argues that American commercial banks will continue to control the supply of dollars in reality, and that the U.S. will remain the global monetary hegemon.
Real VisionDecember 03, 2020
Reopening Fake Out Sectors, Positive Jobs Data Surprises, and Renewed Stimulus Hopes
Real Vision editor Max Wiethe is joined by both Jack Farley and Ed Harrison in this multi-part edition of The Daily Briefing. In part one, Jack and Max discuss the swirling optimism and pessimism surrounding reopening favorites like airlines and movie theaters and debate whether these industries and others like commercial real estate are in store for a new normal post-COVID. In part two, Ed Harrison returns to update his rough winter thesis in light of today’s positive surprise in jobs data and the renewed hopes for fiscal stimulus as news of good-faith bipartisan discussions and support from President Trump for slimmed down stimulus indicate a potential for more positive surprises. As well, they look forward at the pitfalls that still remain and tomorrow's more important jobs report. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin digs deeper into today’s jobless claims number to analyze why the weekly jobless claims fell last week after rising for two consecutive weeks and what this means for the labor market's recovery.
Real VisionDecember 03, 2020
Howard Klein: Return of The Lithium Bull
Howard Klein, founder and partner at RK Equity, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to provide a strategic update on the battery market and specific lithium stocks such as Albemarle ($ABL), Livent ($LTHM), and Piedmont Lithium ($PLL). Key learnings: Lithium miners offer exposure to the electric vehicle sector but at tremendous discounts to EV manufacturers such as Tesla. Klein is bullish on mined commodities in general, but the inherent inelasticity of lithium makes it especially attractive. Over 80% of the world’s Lithium supply comes from China, and COVID-19 has brought the issue of supply chain resilience to the fore. Additionally, Klein discusses how lithium hydroxide is a faster-growing market than that for Lithium carbonate. Filmed on November 30, 2020.
Real VisionDecember 02, 2020
Four Fiscal Cliffs Between Now and the Inauguration
Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to discuss the potentially negative jobs data that Ed is watching out for later this week. Harrison also highlights the four fiscal cliffs between now and the inauguration that could potentially cause permanent economic damage and undermine the optimism surrounding the vaccine rotation trade. They also discuss the importance of perceived duration in how certain assets react to these surprises in real economic data. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the new ADP numbers, the latest data on the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., the U.K.'s emergency-use authorization of Pfizer and BioNTech SE's vaccine, and president-elect Biden's nominations for key economic positions in his administration.

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